Upcoming earthquake might kill thousands of people in Japan

(MENAFN) Japanese authorities have projected that a major earthquake beneath Tokyo and surrounding areas could result in up to 18,000 deaths and inflict 83 trillion yen ($535 billion) in economic losses under a worst-case scenario, according to a draft government estimate released on Friday.

The assessment assumes a magnitude-7.3 quake striking the metropolitan region. This figure is lower than the 2015 government projection, which estimated 23,000 fatalities and 95 trillion yen ($611 billion) in losses, reflecting improvements in earthquake-resistant building construction and fire prevention measures. Nonetheless, the updated estimate still falls short of previous targets to reduce the projected death toll by half within a decade.

Japan, situated along the Pacific Ring of Fire, experiences around 1,500 earthquakes annually. Officials plan to revise the nation’s basic disaster preparedness plan following consultations with an expert panel later this month. A government source noted that the estimate “could still change.”

The projected 7.3-magnitude quake is smaller than the 9.1-magnitude Tohoku earthquake of 2011, which triggered a devastating tsunami, a nuclear leak at Fukushima, and more than 18,000 deaths. Experts estimate there is roughly a 70% probability of such a quake striking Tokyo and nearby areas within the next 30 years.

If it occurs, millions of residents in the metropolitan area — home to government offices and major corporate headquarters — would be affected. Around 400,000 buildings could be destroyed, and 8.4 million people might face difficulties returning home. Disaster-related fatalities, including those caused by worsening health conditions while sheltering, are projected to range between 16,000 and 41,000, according to the draft assessment.

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